Hermēs DocumentationFutures Trader Playbook
5 real scenarios — translating the GEX 4-Layer framework into concrete ES / NQ futures actions
Position of This Chapter
The first four chapters were maps and theory. This one is terrain drill: given a market state, what should a futures trader specifically do.
Each scenario follows a uniform format:
- Trigger conditions: what you see on Hermēs = this scenario
- Underlying mechanics: why this setup works
- Entry action: where to buy / sell, position size
- Stop placement: explicit stop strike
- Take-profit targets: TP1 / TP2
- Invalidation: when to abandon
- Typical case: a narrative walkthrough
Warning: every concrete number below is illustrative.
- You must adjust position for your own contract sizing
- You must compute risk per trade against your own balance
- Don't copy numbers — internalise the mechanics
- Every setup assumes you already know basic futures order entry, stops, and trailing stops
Scenario 1 · Standard Pre-market to Close Routine
The most basic, the most important. No routine = no playbook execution.
Timeline
08:00–08:30 ET · Pre-market prep (15 min)
Open Hermēs HuntingFlow, scan in order:
- Market State card: Long or Short Gamma today?
- HVL price: write it down
- C1 / P1 price: write down
- Ab1 price: write down (mark "super heavyweight" if it overlaps C1/P1)
- D+ / D−: write down — these are event-level triggers
- Confluence 4+ strikes: highlight in purple (top reaction zones)
Open your terminal (NinjaTrader / Tradovate / MotiveWave), draw these levels on the ES 5-min chart.
08:30 ET · Economic data release
Never open a new position in the 5 minutes before release.
Holding a position? Reduce size by 30–50%. After release? Wait 15 minutes for dealer hedge to settle before deciding.
09:30 ET · 30-minute "observation window"
GEX levels go through a major repositioning at the open → C1 / P1 may jump to entirely new strikes.
No new positions in these 30 minutes. Let Hermēs data stabilise.
What you do in these 30 minutes:
- Wait for the first post-open Confluence 4+ to appear
- Watch which side of HVL spot stabilises on
- Verify Market State (pre-open Long Gamma may flip to Short Gamma at open)
10:00–14:00 ET · Main trading window
Pick the toolbox based on Hermēs Market State:
- Long Gamma regime: use Scenario 3 (Pin Trade)
- Short Gamma regime: use Scenario 4 (Trend Day)
- Gamma Flip happens: use Scenario 2 (Flip Reversal)
14:00–15:30 ET · "Vanna window"
Watch the Options Flow card's Vanna Exposure:
- High Vanna + VIX dropping → high probability of a Vanna Burn melt-up
- This is when "range turns trend" in Long Gamma days. Be alert.
15:30–16:00 ET · EOD window
Open the EOD Magnet card:
- Target Strike + Confidence > 70% → prep Scenario 5 (EOD Magnet)
- Otherwise → flatten all intraday positions
After 16:15 ET · Review
- Use the HuntingFlow history replay to scrub forward from the open
- Compare the morning Market Prep levels against actual price action — note which worked, which failed
- Write notes in your own journal; reference tomorrow
Key insight:
The fastest way for a futures trader to lose money is not "reading the wrong signal" — it's having no routine. Hermēs gives you data; you must convert data → action via routine.
The 8 steps above take < 30 minutes per day but filter out 80% of emotion-driven trades.
Scenario 2 · Gamma Flip Reversal
The single highest-priority, highest-payoff setup.
Trigger conditions
Hermēs Discord push "Gamma Flip Alert"
Or you observe: spot crosses HVL from above to below (or vice versa)
Confluence scoring reshuffles
Previous 4+ Exceptional strikes may invalidate; new ones emerge
Underlying mechanics
Recap Options & Dealer Mechanics → Gamma Flip: price crossing HVL → aggregate dealer gamma flips sign → hedge behaviour switches instantly.
- Long → Short Gamma: previous "fade" sells vanish, new "chase" sells appear → decline accelerates
- Short → Long Gamma: previous "chase" buys convert to "fade" buys → rally is capped → tends to roll over
That's why Gamma Flip is usually followed by a "recalibration window" before the new direction confirms.
Entry action
Wait 20–30 minutes for the recalibration window
Don't enter on the flip itself. Let dealer positions settle, let new C1 / P1 / Ab1 levels stabilise.
Entry signal: when a new ★★★ or ★★★★ Confluence strike appears on the Hermēs chart and price retests it — then enter.
| Flip direction | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long → Short Gamma | Short on bounce to HVL | HVL + 5–10 pts (per vol) | New P1 | Next D− |
| Short → Long Gamma | Long on pullback to HVL | HVL − 5–10 pts | New C1 | Next D+ |
Size recommendation: 1.5× normal (this is the best-payoff setup)
Invalidation
- Flip occurs but spot rolls back to the original side within 30 min → false flip, flatten
- Confluence doesn't reshuffle → it's a technical flip, not structural → skip
- Major macro event imminent (FOMC, CPI) → abandon
Typical case
2026-05-13 13:42 ET: ES spot at 5905 breaks HVL=5900. Hermēs pushes "Gamma Flip: LONG → SHORT GAMMA". 30 minutes later a new P1 appears at 5862 (didn't exist before). Confluence 4× Exceptional marks the 5862 / 5870 area.
Spot bounces to HVL=5900 (13:55 ET reaches 5897), creating a short entry.
Entry: short 1 MES at 5897 Stop: 5910 (HVL +10) Target: 5862 (new P1)
14:38 ET spot touches 5864 and reverses. 1 contract = +33 points (~$165 / MES).
Scenario 3 · Pin Trade (Long Gamma Range)
The most stable intraday setup in Long Gamma regimes.
Trigger conditions
Hermēs Market State = "LONG GAMMA"
Spot stable above HVL for ≥ 30 minutes
Net GEX (ZGR) materially positive
Means dealers are net long gamma → market-wide vol suppression
Ab1 sits between C1 and P1
Forms the "iron triangle" range
Statistical Radar within ±2σ
VIX low and stable
Underlying mechanics
In a Long Gamma regime, dealers must fade:
- Price into C1 → dealer sells spot → price retraces
- Price into P1 → dealer buys spot → price bounces
Absent a macro shock, price will chop between C1 ↔ P1 repeatedly, often producing 3–5 "edge rejections" per day.
Entry action
Bi-directional setup:
| Direction | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (C1 reject) | Spot touches C1 + 1-min rollover | C1 + 3 pts | Ab1 | P1 |
| Long (P1 reject) | Spot touches P1 + 1-min bounce | P1 − 3 pts | Ab1 | C1 |
Size recommendation: 1.0× normal
Key discipline:
- Don't trade between C1 and P1 — only at the edges
- If stopped → abandon the same direction for the day (no immediate reversal trade)
- TP1 (Ab1) → take half off, protect profit
Invalidation
- Spot breaks decisively through C1 or P1 (5-min close beyond) → regime may flip, flatten
- VIX spikes ≥ 1.5 pts → Long Gamma regime under threat
- DEX Flip Alert push → flatten
Typical case
2026-04-22: ES Long Gamma all day. HVL = 5820, C1 = 5848 (★★★★), P1 = 5790 (★★★★), Ab1 = 5820 (overlaps HVL, super-heavy).
- 10:12 ET: spot touches 5847, retreats to 5832, 1-min confirms rejection → short at 5846 → 11:08 ET half off at 5820 (Ab1), 13:50 ET remainder at 5793. Result: 23 pts on 1 lot + 27 pts on 0.5 lot.
- 14:47 ET: spot drops to 5791, 1-min bounce → long at 5793 → 15:32 ET half off at 5821, 15:55 ET remainder at 5845.
Net day: ~60+ pts on 1 MES.
Scenario 4 · Trend Day (Short Gamma)
The setup that maximises Short Gamma profit.
Trigger conditions
Hermēs Market State = "SHORT GAMMA"
Net GEX (ZGR) deeply negative
A catalyst event today
- FOMC day
- CPI day
- Major geopolitics / earnings beat or miss
- Spot has moved ≥ 1% within 30 minutes after the open
Underlying mechanics
In Short Gamma, dealers are forced to chase:
- Price drops → dealer sells spot → drop accelerates
- This is the classic gamma squeeze incubator
In Extension Zone (spot < P1 or spot > C1) the effect amplifies further.
Entry action
Trend "break-retest" setup:
| Direction | Entry | Stop | TP1 | TP2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Short (after P1 break) | Spot pulls back to P1 | P1 + 5 pts | Next D− or P2 | Mid-Extension Zone |
| Long (after C1 break) | Spot pulls back to C1 | C1 − 5 pts | Next D+ or C2 | Mid-Extension Zone |
Size recommendation: 0.7× normal (high-vol days, smaller per-trade risk)
Strict stops:
In Short Gamma, single losses can be large. Mandatory:
- Use market stops (no limits — slippage risk)
- Move stop to entry after TP1
- Trailing stop = 1× ATR (5-min)
Invalidation
- Price breaks P1 / C1 but doesn't retrace (no pullback) → don't chase, wait next retrace
- Within 30 min of break spot returns to break level → "fake break" → don't enter or exit
- VIX drops ≥ 2 pts → Short Gamma weakening
Typical case
2026-03-19: FOMC day. ES opens 5680 at 09:30, HVL = 5720, spot already in Short Gamma.
09:48 ET FOMC hawkish minutes → spot breaks P1 = 5640 within 5 min. Hermēs Discord pushes "Major Wall Break: P1 5640".
10:15 ET spot retests 5642 → short entry. Stop: 5645 (P1 +5) 11:30 ET TP1: D− = 5605 touched, half off. 13:42 ET trend extends to 5572 (mid Extension Zone), trailing stop hits at 5585, exit.
Net day: ~56 pts on 1 MES.
Scenario 5 · EOD Magnet
Best setup for part-time traders: only 60 minutes before close.
Trigger conditions
Hermēs EOD Magnet card:
- Confidence > 70%
- Distance > 5 pts (less than 5 pts not worth it)
- Target Strike overlaps Ab1 or AbOI (best)
Today is an SPX 0DTE expiration day
Mon / Wed / Fri (strongest); other days possible but weaker
Underlying mechanics
Recap Options & Dealer Mechanics → Charm:
- Near close, ATM option Delta collapses minute by minute
- Dealers must rapidly unwind previously hedged spot
- If they were net long, they must sell → spot drags to the dealer-neutral point
That neutral point is typically Ab1 (where dealer total exposure peaks).
Entry action
One-way bet on Target Strike:
| Distance | Entry | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot above Target | Short | Spot + 3 pts | Target Strike |
| Spot below Target | Long | Spot − 3 pts | Target Strike |
Size recommendation: 0.5× normal (payoff is below Scenario 2 but the setup is more deterministic)
Discipline:
- Must be flat by 15:45 ET (15:55 ET latest)
- Don't hold overnight just because "almost reached target"
- Target hit → close, do not flip the position
Invalidation
- Past 15:30 ET and spot still > 10 pts from Target → not enough time, skip
- 30 min from close with confidence dropping to < 50% → flatten
- Breaking news (geopolitics, corporate event) → flatten
Typical case
2026-06-06 (Wed 0DTE): 14:55 ET ES spot 5912. Hermēs EOD Magnet shows Target = 5900, Confidence = 76%, Distance = −12. Ab1 = 5900 (overlap).
14:58 ET entry: short 1 MES at 5910 (0.5× size). Stop: 5915 Target: 5900
15:43 ET spot touches 5902, bounces. Trailing stop at 5905 triggers, exit.
+5 pts on 1 MES. Next-day review: SPX 0DTE call OI at 5900 strike collapsed dramatically, confirming Charm-driven dealer selling.
Risk & Money Management (Mandatory)
Regardless of scenario, follow:
1. Single-trade risk ≤ 1% of account
E.g. $30,000 account → max loss per trade $300 → 1 MES (tick = $5) → 60-pt stop = $300.
If a setup requires a 30-pt stop → 2 MES is allowed, but no extra sizing.
2. Daily max loss ≤ 3% of account
Three losses in a row (1% each) → stop trading for the day. No "revenge size".
Come back tomorrow.
3. Monthly max loss ≤ 10% of account
Reach it → pause trading for 1 week, review every Hermēs Ledger entry, identify systemic mis-reads.
4. Don't "feel-trade" without a Hermēs signal
A day with no Hermēs setup = a day with no trade.
Forcing trades is the fastest way to lose money.
5. Major event day (FOMC, CPI, NFP) rules
- 30 min pre-release: no new positions
- At release: zero exposure
- 30 min post-release: "observation window", let Hermēs recalibrate
- After that, consider Scenario 2 (Flip) or Scenario 4 (Trend)
Playbook Overview
| Scenario | Regime | Window | Size | Payoff | Difficulty |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Routine | Any | All day | — | — | ★ |
| 2 Gamma Flip Reversal | Flip moment | Any | 1.5× | High | ★★★★ |
| 3 Pin Trade | Long Gamma | 10:00–14:30 ET | 1.0× | Medium | ★★ |
| 4 Trend Day | Short Gamma | All day | 0.7× | High | ★★★ |
| 5 EOD Magnet | Any | 15:00–15:45 ET | 0.5× | Medium | ★★ |
Closing Note
The futures trader's "holy grail" isn't prediction accuracy — it's discipline + probability + review.
Every level, Confluence score, narrative, and HUD card in Hermēs exists to shift your probability. It won't make you 100% right, but it can push your hit-rate from 45% → 55%, your payoff from 1:1 → 1:1.5.
The rest is daily discipline.
Good trading.
Feedback & Community
- Discord server: join the community to share daily setups
- GitHub Issues: report bugs or request features
- Email: support@hermes-trade.com (Pro / Lifetime users get priority)